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Offline Gribbie

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Corbynmania
« on: Tuesday 15 September 2015, 1501 »
There is a new labour leader. What do you think? A refreshing change or a loony leftie?
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Offline Che Guevaras Flip Flops

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #1 on: Tuesday 15 September 2015, 1816 »
He has major pronlems.

Although the union rank & file voted massively for him and the ordinary party members,  the Parliamentary Labour Party (the Labour MPs) do not like him.   There are several reasons for this but most notably:-

a. He intends to clip their wings by making them more answerable to the party membership in their own Constituencies.

b. He spends very very little on expenses and will expect them to do likewise.  He is a frugal, unassuming humble man who doesn't do egos and cares little for others egos.

c. He intends to allow the party membership to select what the main direction of the party should be and concentrate on decentralising the party apparatus, giving more say to the members and mass recruiting of membership.

d.  For the last 40 years or so,  the two main parties have abandoned the idea of trying to attract new voters and instead adopted a rather pathetic policy of 'triangulation' & consensus (basically never disagreeing with your opponent, rather agreeing with him but adding minor variations) and trying to attract 2-3% of soft swing voters in a couple of dozen seats in the east and west English Midlands to switch to them - the so-called swing constituencies and the floating voters in them.    Our system is such that the election in the UK is actually decided by less than 100,000 such swing voters residing in about 50 swing constituencies in the east & west midlands (most seats in the rest of the country never change hands).   These are invariably what are referred to as 'strivers' and as a result for the last 40 years the tories and labour have drifted closer and closer to each other as they fight over this small group in this handful of seats and have largely ignored the rest of the UK taking it for granted that in the other areas they will remain firm.   Corbyn says (quite correctly) that this is bollocks and instead of fighting over 2-3% of swing voters in such a small area, that instead they (Labour) should concentrate on building a mass-movement and attracting some of the 35% of registered voters that do not vote.  That if they just attract 1 in 10 of the registered voters that don't vote then they will win by a massive landslide and that the key to this is to listen to the grass roots as opposed to preaching at them,,  that the state is there to serve the people the way the people want not the way the state wants.

Already seismic changes are taking place within the Labour party.    Since Corbyn was elected on saturday, over 40,000 new members have signed up and that shows no sign of easing.   These will almost all be people who are left wing in outlook, attracted back to the party because of Corbyn and so the Labour Party will - as a result of Corbyns belief in involving the membership more, shift the entire party apparatus at grass roots level leftwards.

Another main problem is the press.  They are dominated by conservatives and as a result they will really go to town on him, .  That however often ends up a two-edged sword - if the public start to perceive that he is being picked on they will start to sympathise with him.

Then there is the ripple effect.  Wales and Scotland are historically more left leaning than England.   During this Parliament,  the Westminster Constituencies will be reviewed and boundaries will be redrawn and the constituencies more balanced on population size (at the moment urban constituencies tend to have less voters than rural ones and Wales, Scotland and NI have too many seats per capita in relation to England - this all places an in-built bias towards Labour).)   This balancing and re-drawing will lead to Wales, Scotland and NI having far fewer Constituencies and as a result far fewer MPs and far less importance or significance.   England has almost always been tory for most of the last 100 years and once the new boundaries are in place,  even Blair at his peak would have struggled to beat the tories.   So why is this important?   As I said,  Wales and Scotland are more Labour than England.  If their importance to Labour is reduced,  will the people of both countruies move toweards Labour out of fear of English Toryism,  or will they move more towards Plaid and the SNP seeing independence (or federation at the very least) as the only way of escaping never-ending tory rule.

They are the main points for the next few years as I see them.  Then there are the side issues such as the EU referendum, TTIP (which will effectively privatise the NHS), the replacement for TRIDENT, the on-going disaster of western involvement in the middle east and it's fall-out,  Putin's expansionism (he's not finished with Ukraine yet),  America's drift back to pre-World War 2 isolationism, NATO and the American stance that everyone has got to pull their weight or they will reduce their involvement and the slow meltdown of the Chinese economy.    Team Corbyn have got to come up with policies regarding all of this and they don't really have very long to not only develop them but implement them as well.

If he survives his own MPs for the next 6 months then he will be leader for 2020 general election - and If I were his MPs I would think twice before staging a coup anyway - he is the memberships man and the unions man.   Overthrow him and the membership and the unions will turn on you and destroy you.  He won't win - but then again neither would Cooper, Burnham or Kendall, who were all seen during the leadership election for exactly what they are - shallow, non-combative and weak.  And the tranche underneath them - Creagh, Umanna et al appeared even more useless and weak.   Blairism and the New Labour project are now formally dead.

Personally,  I think Corbyn is going to surprise a lot of people - especially if he succeeds in his policy of persuing the non-voters.  He won't win - but he will do far better than most people think he will and better than Miliband or Brown did.

Labour will not win Office this side of 2025 I don't think - and I doubt they will then either (watch out for a guy called Dan Jarvis to take over Labour in 2020 - sharp cookie, presentable, and unusually for Labour a man who had a real job before entering politics), and therein lies their next problem.  If Wales and Scotland perceive that the Labour machine isn't going to win for decades, then even more left leaning voters in those countries will move to Plaid and the SNP and the clamour for the break-up of the UK will increase. And as a Plaid member I can't wait.
« Last Edit: Tuesday 15 September 2015, 1927 by Che Guevaras Flip Flops »

Offline Che Guevaras Flip Flops

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #2 on: Tuesday 15 September 2015, 1903 »
As an afternote.

Case point about media today.  The press are more concerned that Corbyn didn't sing the National Anthem during the Battle of Britain thing,  than they are about the 4.4bn of cuts to tax credits that was voted through Parliament as well today (there will be more cuts  to working tax credits every year to 2020 - and beyond should the tories win again in 2020)

Now then,  it is extemely rude, boorish and bad form to sing the National Anthem at official events unless you are royalty.  You are supposed to stand up, look up and shut up.   Same as doing a loyal toast.  if the toast is 'The Queen'  then the only permissable response is 'The Queen'.  Saying God bless here or whatever is actually very bad manners.

But these cuts will affect the low paid disproportionately and what aren't the low paid?  They aren't the 2-3% of 'strivers' who live in the 40-50 swing seats in England.   Wales is mainly a low income area - but it, along with other low income areas, is regarded as purely expendable and of no consequence by the tories because the people it affects the most live in irrelevant areas that don't vote tory anyway.

So there you have it - a press more concerned about someone not singing when they aren't supposed to than millions of low paid working families who have just been made poorer.

PS - The French and the Russians had the right idea about Royal families.

Offline Gribbie

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #3 on: Tuesday 15 September 2015, 2035 »
Wow. Thanks che. Fantastic summary. I think you're pretty much spot on although I hope you're wrong about 2020  :)

Trefs - what do you think?
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Offline Rascal

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #4 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 0130 »
Excellent Che, summed up what Newsnight, the news, the papers have been saying and doing over the last few weeks.

One thing though, you say that there are 40,000 new members, but a lot of these are returning members that lost faith in New Labour. A very good friend of mine, a trade unionist and labour supporter and activist for years, left the Labour Party and I remember him saying in disgust, New Labour is no Labour at all. He was down that there London at the vote the other day and he is back in the game. Having said that, I take your point that they are new members.
IT IS RASCALS BIRTHDAY BEFORE MONKEY FIDDLERS!!! STILL!!!      
Oooh, it's all "Wils, Wils, Wils!"
Rascal bach, you have no idea how hard I'm laughing at your last post.  You are so funny.
I think Rascal should apologise for Wils - seriously!

Offline Gribbie

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #5 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1011 »
I'm on the verge of spending my cash and signing up. First time I've felt enthused and optimistic about politics for a long time. Looking forward to PMQ's today  :)
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Offline gazza

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #6 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1047 »
Ditto Gribs, and spot on che.

I would add that the media outcry against Corbyn is precedented by what went on last year with the SNP

It's as if the media never learn.

Also I was reading Bobby Llew's blog the other day (he off Red Dwarf and Scrapheap Challenge) be says Corby isn't left, he's a moderate. It's just that everything had gone so far off to the right the last thirty years it's hard to spot that

http://www.fullychargedshow.co.uk/journal/2015/9/13/what-is-radical
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Offline Rascal

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #7 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1050 »
Is the wet liberal site still going gazza?
IT IS RASCALS BIRTHDAY BEFORE MONKEY FIDDLERS!!! STILL!!!      
Oooh, it's all "Wils, Wils, Wils!"
Rascal bach, you have no idea how hard I'm laughing at your last post.  You are so funny.
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Offline gazza

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #8 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1057 »
Eh?
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Offline HARV

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #9 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1344 »
  I will support any party that promises to shut our WHITE ELEPHANT down in. CARDIFF  pronto ;D  ;D

Offline Che Guevaras Flip Flops

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #10 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1352 »
  I will support any party that promises to shut our WHITE ELEPHANT down in. CARDIFF  pronto ;D  ;D

That isn't going to happen.  Devolution is here to stay and will only increase - not only for Scotland, Wales and NI, but also for the city regions in England.  Even UKIP Wales now accept the bi-lingual policy and devolution itself.

« Last Edit: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1840 by Che Guevaras Flip Flops »

Offline HARV

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #11 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 1959 »
No proplem with devolution Che.... its just that to me it all seems to revolve south of Aberystwyth

Offline Trefignath

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #12 on: Wednesday 16 September 2015, 2339 »
Excellent piece of analysis there Che.

What struck me was the reaction - the seeming disbelief of the Labour suits to the fact that large numbers of Labour supporters seem now to be willing to ignore the elites wishes. Where will it end?

As for Corbyn himself -- he appears to be one of the nfew in the leadership to have real sincerity and I for one rather admired his "non-singing" of the National Anthem. [There are a couple of facebook posts to the effect:- "If you want a country where everyone sings the N.A. then f*** off to North Korea"]

That said I predict that the best he will try to do is to redistribute poverty. Capitalism has it's own priorities and will in the end trump the most well meaning of intentions.
Not waiting for the others.

Offline Gribbie

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #13 on: Thursday 17 September 2015, 1134 »
Well I paid my money and signed up last night. I don't know if he will get very far but I didn't want to shout "these are real people's lives you're ****ing with you jeering idiots"  to the telly when they showed prime ministers questions.
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Offline Che Guevaras Flip Flops

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #14 on: Friday 18 September 2015, 1828 »
You must one one of the now over 50,000 that have joined/re-joined since Corbyn was elected.

Offline Gribbie

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #15 on: Friday 18 September 2015, 2039 »
Power to the people  ;D
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Offline Wils

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #16 on: Wednesday 23 December 2015, 1518 »
I'm all for sound political analysis, but a) Corbyn has a beard and b) his surname sounds a little like "Corbett."

PS I realise this thread is three months old, but cutting edge satirical comments are always welcome.
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Offline Baz

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #17 on: Wednesday 23 December 2015, 1724 »
I realise this thread is three months old, but cutting edge satirical comments are always welcome.

It's also 4 months since the last daily fact..........

Offline Rascal

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #18 on: Thursday 24 December 2015, 0027 »
Hazza, Robert LLewelyn used to do a YouTube blog called wet liberal.  It was very good, especially the one in the snow in the woods as far as I can remember.
IT IS RASCALS BIRTHDAY BEFORE MONKEY FIDDLERS!!! STILL!!!      
Oooh, it's all "Wils, Wils, Wils!"
Rascal bach, you have no idea how hard I'm laughing at your last post.  You are so funny.
I think Rascal should apologise for Wils - seriously!

Offline gazza

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #19 on: Thursday 24 December 2015, 0822 »
I see. I never knew of that. Only his E.v. show which is doing really well now, And his car pool one which is quite funny.
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Offline Rascal

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #20 on: Thursday 24 December 2015, 1508 »
IT IS RASCALS BIRTHDAY BEFORE MONKEY FIDDLERS!!! STILL!!!      
Oooh, it's all "Wils, Wils, Wils!"
Rascal bach, you have no idea how hard I'm laughing at your last post.  You are so funny.
I think Rascal should apologise for Wils - seriously!

Offline Wils

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #21 on: Thursday 24 December 2015, 2043 »
I realise this thread is three months old, but cutting edge satirical comments are always welcome.

It's also 4 months since the last daily fact..........


The problem with the Daily Fact was that it was by far the best thing on this otherwise humdrum, dribdrab site. As such, viewing figures rose by 300% overnight over a five year period, and I was headhunted by SK"Believe In Better"Y.

Sorry but you lot had the chance to retain the contract, and you blew it. Now I hang out with movie stars, like that one with the nose.
Even now
My thought is clinging as to a lost learning
Slipped down out of the minds of men,
Labouring to bring her back into my soul.

Offline Carnedyr

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Re: Corbynmania
« Reply #22 on: Monday 04 January 2016, 0729 »
The daily fact in fact was the best fact about here that's a fact
while we have time let us do good